Another Decade of Bird Flu Watch

We haven’t been hearing much about bird flu lately, but according to experts, that isn’t because it’s gone away. “The virus is likely to be with us for another five or ten years,” said David Nabarro, Senior United Nations System Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza at U. N. Headquarters in New York. He advised continued vigilance in the event the virus mutates and becomes easily transferred between humans.

“As long as the virus is present in birds, there will also be the threat of sporadic human infection,” he added, “and the possibility of a mutation causing a pandemic.”

Repeated outbreaks of human infections mean the virus will not be eliminated for some time, he noted, but he is hopeful that efforts undertaken to combat the virus in recent months have increased pandemic preparedness.

“The difference now is that countries all over the world are much more geared up to deal with this phenomenon than they were a year ago. It gives me some hope that when the virus appears in a new country, it can be controlled,” he said.

“It’s the reason why we have to work toward long-term reform of poultry farming techniques, which could reduce the risks of human infection.”

It’s nearly impossible, says Nabarro, to estimate the number of deaths that a pandemic could cause. His best guess: somewhere between five and 150 million.